Top seed perspective: Gonzaga is the best club in the West by a considerable margin, but the Zags, despite reaching the final two years back, have not always performed well under the tournament’s lights. However, Gonzaga has a 70 percent likelihood of reaching the Elite Eight, based on our model, as well as the third-best odds of any group to reach the national championship game (26 percent).
Should Gonzaga face Syracuse in the next round, the Bulldogs trouble could be given by the zone defense of the Orange. This is the very best crime Mark Few has experienced Spokane, but it may be tested by any of those terrific defenses from the West: Four of the top 15 can be found in this area, including the top two in Texas Tech and Michigan.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 4 Florida State. A fixture in the KenPom Top 20 for most of the season, the Seminoles are hoping to build on last season’s championship run, which saw them come inside a 4-point margin of making the Final Four. FSU has a dominant defense (No. 9 in Pomeroy’s evaluations ) plus a balanced roster that saw four players collect at least 2.5 win stocks. This draw is not horrible, either: Vermont is not particularly difficult as a first-round foe, and Marquette is quite beatable (more on that below). No. 1 seeded Gonzaga probably looms after that, and we give FSU a 24 percent chance against the Zags — but the Seminoles would have a 48 percent chance of creating the Final Four if they were to pull off the upset.
Do not bet : No. 5 Marquette. Teams seeded fifth aren’t usually good bets to make it past the Sweet 16 anyway, but Marquette might be a particularly bad choice. According to the FiveThirtyEight energy ratings, the Golden Eagles are undoubtedly the worst No. 5 seed in the field, and also a first-round date with breakout mid-major superstar Ja Morant didn’t do them any favors. Marquette has some star power of its own in junior guard Markus Howard, who ranks sixth in the country with an average of 25 points per game, but this team dropped five of its final six matches and has a tough tournament road ahead of it.
Cinderella watch: No. 10 Florida. They are poised to do some damage they are here, although the Gators might have been among the last bubble teams to sneak into the area of 68. They drew Nevada, a so-so No. 7 seed, at the first round, and we provide Florida a 42 percent chance of pulling the upset there. Last year’s nationwide runner-up, Michigan, likely waits in Round two, and that is a difficult matchup (23 percent likelihood of Florida) — but if the Gators win, then they’ve a 38 percent likelihood of making the Elite Eight. In a region with a number of good-but-flawed options, Florida looks better than the typical 10-seed.
Player to watch: Brandon Clarke This Zags’ linchpin isn’t the consensus lottery selection, nor the two guards that have started 87 percent of the games of Gonzaga . It is a transfer from San Jose State who’s in his first season with the group, Brandon Clarke. He is possibly the most underappreciated player in the country.
On a group that features a 7-footer protecting the rim, it is Clarke. Clarke has reacted by placing a single-season blocks record and posting the maximum block speed of any group under Couple.
« Should I feel like if I can get a good, quick jump , I will pretty much jump with anybody, » Clarke told me. « I mean, I have seen Zion (Williamson) coming down through the street before TV, and if I can not jump at the ideal time, I probably would not jump , but… I do not really see myself not jumping with anybody. »
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Syracuse (48 percent); No. 10 Florida over No. 7 Nevada (42 percent); No. 12 Murray State over No. 5 Marquette (32 percent)
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