There’s a good deal of cash to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the main tournament. I will be going heavier than usual this week following the significant GPP prizes, and that I will play less cash games than usual. Here is the first time we’ve observed a $30k top prize, therefore I believe it is worth chasing if you’ve got the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling from the fight against Brian Ortega, so we’re down to 11 fights and we ought to see a great deal of ties with this card with all the popular lineups. If you are pursuing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a bit different with your lineup so that you can separate yourself from the remainder of the field. With that said, let’s get to a few plays I enjoy as well as my fade of the week.
Money Game play of this week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is $1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That’s just too much line value to pass on in money games which makes Felder that the »free square » this week. Even if he loses this fight, he must be so highly owned that it will not even damage your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the highest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so maybe think about preventing the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with this crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the money game play of this week.
GPP play of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a little weird because I literally just picked Paul Felder because my money play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we all don’t care about ownership. If Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it will not damage your lineup since only 10 percent of lineups did not have him and you only need to be top ~50 percent of the field to money in money games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will be over 50% possessed. If he loses, that is half of the field that is dead with no chance at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% just due to this mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50% of lineups, then you get a triumph using the low owned man to set you in a much better location of a solo 1st place win and possibly hitting that $30k. Perry has the power to KO anyone and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Would it shock you that much if Perry could KO him in this fight? In GPPs, we’re interested in finding that boom or bust play and that’s Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog play of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this struggle took place 5 years ago, but today we get a fading Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can keep this fight standing for many the fight and that will give him a big advantage. He is also dangerous on the ground himself and if he is taken down I think he will have the ability to get back up if he is not able to get a entry of his very own. If Pettis can acquire a decision then I presume he will pay his off DK cost and is going to be a good underdog to use so you can conserve salary in your lineups. I may even find this battle ending early from Pettis falling Chiesa using a human body kick and if that happens he will probably be on the winning lineup if he could make it happen in round 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think that he wins the struggle, but I don’t see him paying that high price . He does not fight at a hefty rate and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins and the ground is where he will have his main advantage in this matchup. In those previous 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and in his wages this week I need at least 91 points from him to cover that much. I would rather cover the guys higher priced than Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I will have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
Read more: valsdaily.com