I have given you my forecast and betting advice for the main event at UFC 218 (Aldo vs Holloway). Now that the moneylines and props are out for the remainder of the card, it’s time for a UFC 218 deep dive.
Which underdogs have worth? Which fights should bettors prevent? How can you put together a parlay on tap from the conflicts? Let us have a look.
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Golden Underdogs
There’s not any big’dog calling out at UFC 218 to me. But there’s one man on this card who may defy some relatively steep odds.
Francis Ngannou (-270) vs. Alistair Overeem (+230)
Alistair Overeem may get merked by a bigger and more powerful puncher in Francis Ngannou, however at +230, he is well worth throwing a few pennies in the slightest. Normally I’d place this struggle from the stay-away class, but this really is a significant test for Ngannou, a guy who really hasn’t been tested yet.
Overeem is a veteran of the game and, though his chin may be suspect, he’s one of the greatest fight IQs in the heavyweight division. Kickboxing ability and his smarts could provide us a large upset together with a wonderful profit. Don’t go crazy on this, however. Ngannou deserves to be favored not by this much. Overeem is worth a wager.
Felice Herrig (-140) vs. Cortney Casey (+110)
Cortney Casey isn’t a huge dog, but her +105 moneyline would still net you a good yield or promote a parlay. Both fighters have looked strong, but stylistically, Casey appears to have the size and strength to give Herrig problems. The only woman who has been in a position to fit Casey’s physicality was Claudia Gadelha and woman is one of the best in the division. If Casey can pour on the strain, she can overwhelm Herrig and pick up a small upset win . Again, do not go mad and throw down your whole bankroll, but Casey is well worth a few shekels.
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